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Outline of a peace agreement
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It's a whole heap easier to begin a war than to end it.
In this one, there are four major interest groups, of which some are split internally, and for a lasting peace to be achieved all of them must be content with the agreement.
- Russia must have a de-NATOized Ukraine neighbor that accepts the secession of five of its former regions
- Ukraine must have confidence that Russia will not invade its reduced territory, yet favors closer ties with Europe
- European nations must have confidence that Russia will not invade their territories (but note, Slovakia and Hungary are not worried and residents of most countries don't share their governments' proclaimed concerns)
- The US government wishes to maintain and extend its empire (but note, that's a policy of the Biden Gang and of the Deep State; Trump and his supporters don't share it)
One current idea is to have a cease-fire and a NATO contingent guaranteeing the border between Russia and Ukraine. That might satisfy the UkeGov (#2) but would be a non-starter for Russia (#1.) In any case to have the border patrolled by any military force (eg, Indian) is a poor fix; it assumes that hostility will continue. There is no such need.
Russian spokesmen including Mr Putin have repeatedly assured Europeans that they have "no interest" in conquering any of those nations (#3) absent provocation. I believe that; but those are only words. How can Russia guarantee them? Memories of cruel Soviet domination understandably persist.
Here follows a feasible solution, and first notice that it would not be needed at all if the several governments involved did not exist - if each country were a zero government society. Indeed, in that case the war would never have begun. That is the ideal solution and the proposal below assumes that it cannot be implemented in a period as short as a month - whereas this can.
- Both Russia and Ukraine send their soldiers home, simultaneously and while being monitored by a neutral third party. At the same time, all NATO personnel, equipment and weapons will be moved out of Ukraine, whose government will formally accept the reality that Crimea, Kherson, Zaphorizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk are no longer parts of their nation. With a minimal army remaining to each, that demobilization should satisfy requirements #1 and 2 above and contribute strongly to #3.
- Ukraine can be offered immediate membership in the EU. That is not a military but an economic alliance, one benefit of which is that poor countries are given large subsidies to bring them up to near the living standards of richer ones. That would pay for reconstruction. Overall the EU is a bad idea and it may well dissolve, but not in the short term.
- Cancellation of all anti-Russian sanctions will restore the degree of trade between it and Europe to where it was before 2022, and Europeans can notice that there was no Russian threat to them for the previous thirty years. Hence, requirement #3 should be satisfied.
- Requirement #4 is up to the Trump administration, but he is fairly well placed to achieve it. Making America "Great" Again does nor require an empire, but a thriving domestic economy and a healthy amount of international trade.
BENEFIT SUMMARY
Russians would gain:
- Freedom from threat of NATO encirclement via Ukraine
- Freedom from bombardment of the 5 regions that recently chose to join the Federation
- Freedom from thousands of tiresome "sanctions"
- Restoration of valuable trade with Europe
Ukrainians would gain:
- Freedom from heavy loss of life on the battlefield
- Freedom from threat of absorption by Russia
- Return of Ukrainians who evacuated to Europe
- Opportunity to join the EU and get funds to reconstruct and prosper
Europeans would gain:
- Freedom from fear of Russian menace (fabricated menace, real fear)
- Restoration of trade with Russia, including lower-priced fuel
Americans would gain:
- Opportunity to focus resources on domestic growth instead of trying to run an empire
Everyone would gain:
- Freedom from the imminent threat of nuclear annihilation
- Avoidance of waste of resources for war
SUPPLEMENT
A highly valuable extra element (though not needing incorporation in a peace agreement) would be for every nation that feels Russia might be a future threat to reverse its domestic policy about individual self-defense. The Swiss model provides a good basis; each household keeps guns ready for use, so as to provide an instant guerilla army in the case of invasion. It has proven effective for hundreds of years, even when surrounded by combatants as in WW2. Faced with 450 million people with rifles, handguns, ammunition and experience in their use, the chances of a Russian invasion of Europe are slim to none. This "porcupine" strategy is highly effective for defense, but useless for offense. Just what's needed.